Euro-zone finance ministers on Sunday took a step toward shoring up financially troubled Greece. But until the ink is dried on a final agreement, markets are likely to trade in choppy waters.
Finance ministers from European nations that use the euro met by phone into the wee hours of Monday morning, saying they would decide in early July the main outlines of a second bailout for Greece, including private-sector contributions. Finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations also held a conference call Sunday night, according to spokespeople from the U.S. and Japan. One person told The Wall Street Journal the call focused on the euro-zone debt crisis.
Market watchers say that without a solid agreement, riskier assets could fall prey, especially as protesters continue to take to the streets in Athens and a vote of confidence is due early this week in the Greek cabinet.
"It has a long way to go before they can actually say we have dealt with this issue," said Stuart Ive, head trader at HiFX in Auckland, New Zealand. "I think they will ultimately deal with it, but obviously the method they use has to be one that is agreeable firstly to the Greek public, secondly to the German and French public and thirdly to the ratings agencies."
"Financial markets will need to be braced for further volatility," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS in London.
The euro drifted lower in the aftermath of the finance ministers' statement, trading early Monday in Asia at $1.4269 from $1.4302 late Friday in New York.
Investors--and, it would seem, global financial leaders--worry a default on Greek debt could trigger a cascade of problems in Europe's bigger economies, including Spain. Such a domino effect could bring again bring the financial system to its knees, much like the massive crisis of 2008.
"Even though this is a euro zone issue, we know that last year the Treasury, [Federal Reserve] and U.S. government were very clear on the fact that the Greece crisis was affecting global financial markets," Mr. Yu said. "Behind the scenes, fears over a disorderly default, and the repercussions for the global banking system, were too great for the U.S. (and probably Japan) to ignore."
The U.S., which inches toward financial recovery, wouldn't want to be hobbled by a euro-zone debt contagion, Mr. Yu said. Nor would Japan, he said, whose own economy lurched back into recession after the earthquake and proceeding nuclear crisis there.
The fact that a new Greek loan was discussed among G-7 members "gives these talks more credibility with the IMF," said Christian Thwaites, president and chief executive at Sentinel Investments, referring to the International Monetary Fund. "Investors ultimately want to see this situation stop lurching from weekend to weekend," he said.
"If they come to a deal where liquidity is put in place and there's nothing cataclysmic requiring European banks to recapitalize, there probably will be an equity bounce tomorrow," he said. "But the murky details just don't seem final enough or big enough to close the book on this situation."
The apparent G-7 involvement "underscores the threat that a Greek debt default poses to the global financial system," said John Kyriakopoulos, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney. "Indeed, the [European Central Bank] has already warned of this on a few occasions."
Still, the bank believes riskier assets can rally, given the commitment of euro-zone officials--especially of Germany and France, which struck a softer chord in a Friday meeting--to sorting the Greece crisis..